Reconceptualizing Democratic Peace in the Age of Hybrid Warfare: The Case of Estonia and Poland
Özet
This chapter examines hybrid warfare, a growing threat to the contemporary security landscape, and its implications for classical warfare understanding and, in particular, for Democratic Peace Theory. While traditional warfare tactics are generally focused on interstate military operations, hybrid warfare is explored as a multi-layered strategy incorporating military force along with cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure, propaganda, and the use of various actors. This has transformed warfare into a struggle waged not only on the battlefield but also in the information realm, in societal perceptions, and in economic systems. The chapter begins by addressing the theoretical background and development of hybrid warfare theories in the literature. Frank G. Hoffman's approach, in particular, discusses warfare as a multi-dimensional strategy combining conventional and interconnected elements. Furthermore, the chapter analyzes how hybrid threats deepen vulnerabilities in democratic societies, such as social polarization, institutional distrust, and information disruptions. Finally, the study comparatively examines the cases of Estonia and Poland in evaluating the responses of democratic systems to hybrid threats. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of hybrid warfare depends both on the behavior of the aggressor actors and on the institutional transparency, level of social trust, and degree of internalization of democratic norms within the target society. Consequently, the chapter argues for a reinterpretation of democratic peace theory in the context of ‘democratic resistance’ following hybrid warfare.
Kitabın bu bölümü, çağdaş güvenlik ortamının en büyük tehditlerinden olan ve gün geçtikçe yaygınlaşan hibrit savaşın, klasik savaş anlayışı ve özellikle Demokratik Barış Teorisi üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Geleneksel savaş taktikleri incelendiğinde bu taktiklerin genellikle devletler arası askeri çatışmalara odaklandığı görülürken, hibrit savaş askeri güçle birlikte siber saldırılar, dezenformasyon, ekonomik baskı, propaganda ve vekil aktörlerin kullanımı gibi çok katmanlı araçları incelemektedir. Bu durum savaşın hem cephede hem de bilgi alanında, toplumsal algılarda ve ekonomik sistemlerde yürütülen bir mücadeleye dönüşmesine yol açmıştır. Bölümde öncelikle hibrit savaş kavramının teorik arka ve literatürdeki gelişimi ele alınmaktadır. Özellikle Frank G. Hoffman’ın yaklaşımı çerçevesinde savaşın konvansiyonel ve düzensiz unsurların birleştiği çok boyutlu bir strateji haline geldiği tartışılmaktadır. Ardından hibrit tehditlerin demokratik toplumlarda toplumsal kutuplaşma, kurumsal güvensizlik ve bilgi manipülasyonu gibi kırılganlıkları nasıl derinleştirdiği analiz edilmektedir. Çalışma ayrıca hibrit tehditlere karşı demokratik sistemlerin dayanıklılığını değerlendirirken Estonya ve Polonya örneklerini karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemektedir. Bu karşılaştırma, hibrit savaşın etkisinin hem saldırgan aktörlerin kapasitesine bağlı olduğunu hem de hedef toplumların kurumsal şeffaflığına, toplumsal güven düzeyine ve demokratik normların içselleştirilme derecesine bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak bölüm, demokratik barış teorisinin hibrit savaş çağında ‘demokratik direnç’ kavramı ile yeniden yorumlanması gerektiğini savunmaktadır.
Referanslar
Arbab, E. (2011). Function of social capital in sustainable urban development. Uppsala: Uppsala University.
Benson, R. (2023). Poland’s democratic resurgence: From backsliding to beacon. Washington, DC: Center for American Progress.
Britt, E. Z. (2025). Democratic peace: Can it survive across the Taiwan Straits? Cambridge: Harvard University.
Budrytė, D. (2023). A decolonising moment of sorts: The Baltic states’ vicarious identification with Ukraine and related domestic and foreign policy developments. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 17 (4), 82–105. Doi: 10.51870/YPIJ8030
Cieslak, E. (2022). Putting comprehensive defence to work: What can Poland learn from the Baltic states? Politeja, 19 (4), 73-93.
Clausewitz, C. V. (2018). Savaş üzerine. İstanbul.
Croissant, A. & Lott, L. (2024). Democratic resilience in the twenty-first century. Search for an analytical framework and explorative analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1.
Croissanta, A. & Haynesb, J. (2024). Democratic regression in Asia: Introduction. Democracy, state capacity and the governance of COVID-19 in Asia-Oceania. ISBN 9781032423661294, Routledge.
Diggelen, J. van, Aidman, E., Rowa, J. & Vince, J. (2025). Designing AI-enabled countermeasures to cognitive warfare. Science and Technology Organization (NATO).
Fatalski, M. & Michnik, W. (2025). Poland at a crossroads? Strategic choices amid shifting transatlantic security dynamics. London: London School of Economics and Political Science.
Gvineria, S. (2020). Euro-atlantic security before and after COVID-19. Journal on Baltic Security, 6 (1), 5-21.
Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st century: The rise of hybrid wars. Arlington: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
Horonziak, S. (2022). Dysfunctional democracy and political polarisation: The case of Poland. Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 16 (2), 265-289. Doi: 10.1007/s12286-022-00536-6
Jermalavičius, T. (2018). Small state power in the digital era. The American Academy in Berlin. https://www.americanacademy.de/small-state-power-in-the-digital-era/.
Josan, A. & Voicu, C. (2015). Hybrid wars in the age of asymmetric conflicts. Review of the Air Force Academy, (1), 49.
Jungwırth, R., Smıth, H. & Wıllkomm, E. (2023). Hybrid threats: A comprehensive resilience ecosystem. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Karabulut, A. N. (2016). Eski savaş, yeni strateji: Rusya’nın yirmi birinci yüzyıldaki hibrit savaş doktrini ve Ukrayna krizi’ndeki uygulaması. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 13 (49), 25-42.
Karis, A. (2025). How Estonia built a digital society (Panel Recording). Chatham House.
Keskin, F. (1998). Uluslararası hukukta kuvvet kullanma: Savaş, karışma ve Birleşmiş Milletler. Ankara: Mülkiyeliler Birliği Vakfı Yayınları.
Lebrun, M., Aho, A. & Gıannopoulos, G. (2023). Hybrid threats: A comprehensive resilience ecosystem. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Levy, J. S. (1988). Analytic problems in the identification of wars. International Interactions, 14 (2), 30-49.
Ljungkvist, K. (2024). The military-strategic rationality of hybrid warfare: Everyday total defence under strategic non-peace in the case of Sweden. European Journal of International Security, 9, 1-20. Doi: 10.1017/eis.2024.18
Makarychev, A. & Romashko, T. (2020). Precarious sovereignty in a post-liberal Europe: The COVID-19 emergency in Estonia and Finland. Chinese Political Science Review, 6. Doi: 10.1007/s41111-020-00165-y
Mildner, S.-A., McIntyre, A. & Zimmer, N. (2025). Hybrid realities: Disinformation, influencers, and the defense of democracy in Central and Eastern Europe. Berlin: Aspen Institute Deutschland e.V.
Münkler, M. (2010). Yeni savaşlar. (Z. Aksu Yılmazer, Çev. Ed.). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
Oğuz, Ş. (2017). Is hybrid warfare really new? Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 72 (3), 525-540.
Sayın, Y. & Oktay, S, (2015). Bir Savaş Yöntemi Olarak ‘Hibrit Savaş’ ve Dönüşen Ordular: Dünya, Ortadoğu ve Türkiye. In T. Sakman, Devlet Doğasının Değişimi: Güvenliğin Sınırları, 289-298, TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul.
Özer, Y. (2018). Savaşın değişen karakteri: Teori ve uygulamada hibrit savaş. Jandarma Sahil Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7 (1), 29-56.
Özkeçici-Taner, B. (2019). Demokratik barış. Güvenlik Yazıları Serisi, No. 7.
Souverbie, L. (2025) Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union: What implications for Europe’s defense?.IRIS.
Kasprowicz, D. (2025). Despite polarization and populist gains, Poland’s democratic potential remains intact
(Video). European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2Y8POLslhE
Ridge, H. M. (2020). Enemy mine: Negative partisanship and satisfaction with democracy. Political Behavior, 44 (3), 1271-1295. Doi: 10.1007/s11109-020-09658-7
Riedl, R. B., Friesen, P. & McCoy, J. (2023). DRG center learning agenda opening up democratic spaces literature review. Chicago: NORC at the University of Chicago.
Kols, R. (2022). Hybrid threats: The Baltic perspective (CSCE Report). Comission on Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Rosato, S. (2003). The flawed logic of democratic peace theory. American Political Science Review, 97 (4), 585-602. Doi: 10.1017/S0003055403000893
Sağıroğlu, Ş. & Alkan, M. (2018). Siber güvenlik ve savunma: Farkındalık ve caydırıcılık. Ankara: Grafiker.
Schroefl, J. & Kaufman, S. J. (2014). Hybrid actors, tactical variety: Rethinking asymmetric and hybrid war. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 37 (10), 862-880. Doi: 10.1080/1057610X.2014.941435
Robinson, R. (2025 October 14). Cyberocracy and the efficiency paradox: Why democratic design is the smartest AI strategy for government. JD Supra. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cyberocracy-and-the-efficiency-paradox-5883244/.
Wigell, M. (2021). Democratic deterrence: How to dissuade hybrid interference. The Washington Quarterly, 44 (1), 49-67. Doi: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893027.
Wilkie, R. (2009). Hybrid warfare: Something old, not something new. Air & Space Power Journal, 23 (4), 13-18.
Yalçınkaya, H. & Türkeş, K. T. (2008). Yirmi birinci yüzyılda çatışma alanlarında görülen yeni unsurlar. Güvenlik Strateji Dergisi, 4 (7), 55-89.
Yeşilçayır, C. (2019). Kant’ın ebedi barış teorisinin özgünlüğü. Mavi Atlas, 7 (2), 108-120. https://doi.org/10.18795/gumusmaviatlas.599785
Yılmaz, S. (2020). 21. yüzyılda savaşın değişen karakteri: Orta Doğu bağlamında hibrit savaşlar. Ankara: Polis Akademisi.
Żuk, P. & Żuk, P. (2025). Healthy nation body, foreign viruses and border control: Health bordering and biopolitics in the Polish context. Mobilities, 1-26. Doi: 10.1080/17450101.2025.2581040
Referanslar
Arbab, E. (2011). Function of social capital in sustainable urban development. Uppsala: Uppsala University.
Benson, R. (2023). Poland’s democratic resurgence: From backsliding to beacon. Washington, DC: Center for American Progress.
Britt, E. Z. (2025). Democratic peace: Can it survive across the Taiwan Straits? Cambridge: Harvard University.
Budrytė, D. (2023). A decolonising moment of sorts: The Baltic states’ vicarious identification with Ukraine and related domestic and foreign policy developments. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 17 (4), 82–105. Doi: 10.51870/YPIJ8030
Cieslak, E. (2022). Putting comprehensive defence to work: What can Poland learn from the Baltic states? Politeja, 19 (4), 73-93.
Clausewitz, C. V. (2018). Savaş üzerine. İstanbul.
Croissant, A. & Lott, L. (2024). Democratic resilience in the twenty-first century. Search for an analytical framework and explorative analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1.
Croissanta, A. & Haynesb, J. (2024). Democratic regression in Asia: Introduction. Democracy, state capacity and the governance of COVID-19 in Asia-Oceania. ISBN 9781032423661294, Routledge.
Diggelen, J. van, Aidman, E., Rowa, J. & Vince, J. (2025). Designing AI-enabled countermeasures to cognitive warfare. Science and Technology Organization (NATO).
Fatalski, M. & Michnik, W. (2025). Poland at a crossroads? Strategic choices amid shifting transatlantic security dynamics. London: London School of Economics and Political Science.
Gvineria, S. (2020). Euro-atlantic security before and after COVID-19. Journal on Baltic Security, 6 (1), 5-21.
Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st century: The rise of hybrid wars. Arlington: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
Horonziak, S. (2022). Dysfunctional democracy and political polarisation: The case of Poland. Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 16 (2), 265-289. Doi: 10.1007/s12286-022-00536-6
Jermalavičius, T. (2018). Small state power in the digital era. The American Academy in Berlin. https://www.americanacademy.de/small-state-power-in-the-digital-era/.
Josan, A. & Voicu, C. (2015). Hybrid wars in the age of asymmetric conflicts. Review of the Air Force Academy, (1), 49.
Jungwırth, R., Smıth, H. & Wıllkomm, E. (2023). Hybrid threats: A comprehensive resilience ecosystem. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Karabulut, A. N. (2016). Eski savaş, yeni strateji: Rusya’nın yirmi birinci yüzyıldaki hibrit savaş doktrini ve Ukrayna krizi’ndeki uygulaması. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 13 (49), 25-42.
Karis, A. (2025). How Estonia built a digital society (Panel Recording). Chatham House.
Keskin, F. (1998). Uluslararası hukukta kuvvet kullanma: Savaş, karışma ve Birleşmiş Milletler. Ankara: Mülkiyeliler Birliği Vakfı Yayınları.
Lebrun, M., Aho, A. & Gıannopoulos, G. (2023). Hybrid threats: A comprehensive resilience ecosystem. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Levy, J. S. (1988). Analytic problems in the identification of wars. International Interactions, 14 (2), 30-49.
Ljungkvist, K. (2024). The military-strategic rationality of hybrid warfare: Everyday total defence under strategic non-peace in the case of Sweden. European Journal of International Security, 9, 1-20. Doi: 10.1017/eis.2024.18
Makarychev, A. & Romashko, T. (2020). Precarious sovereignty in a post-liberal Europe: The COVID-19 emergency in Estonia and Finland. Chinese Political Science Review, 6. Doi: 10.1007/s41111-020-00165-y
Mildner, S.-A., McIntyre, A. & Zimmer, N. (2025). Hybrid realities: Disinformation, influencers, and the defense of democracy in Central and Eastern Europe. Berlin: Aspen Institute Deutschland e.V.
Münkler, M. (2010). Yeni savaşlar. (Z. Aksu Yılmazer, Çev. Ed.). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
Oğuz, Ş. (2017). Is hybrid warfare really new? Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 72 (3), 525-540.
Sayın, Y. & Oktay, S, (2015). Bir Savaş Yöntemi Olarak ‘Hibrit Savaş’ ve Dönüşen Ordular: Dünya, Ortadoğu ve Türkiye. In T. Sakman, Devlet Doğasının Değişimi: Güvenliğin Sınırları, 289-298, TASAM Yayınları, İstanbul.
Özer, Y. (2018). Savaşın değişen karakteri: Teori ve uygulamada hibrit savaş. Jandarma Sahil Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7 (1), 29-56.
Özkeçici-Taner, B. (2019). Demokratik barış. Güvenlik Yazıları Serisi, No. 7.
Souverbie, L. (2025) Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union: What implications for Europe’s defense?.IRIS.
Kasprowicz, D. (2025). Despite polarization and populist gains, Poland’s democratic potential remains intact
(Video). European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2Y8POLslhE
Ridge, H. M. (2020). Enemy mine: Negative partisanship and satisfaction with democracy. Political Behavior, 44 (3), 1271-1295. Doi: 10.1007/s11109-020-09658-7
Riedl, R. B., Friesen, P. & McCoy, J. (2023). DRG center learning agenda opening up democratic spaces literature review. Chicago: NORC at the University of Chicago.
Kols, R. (2022). Hybrid threats: The Baltic perspective (CSCE Report). Comission on Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Rosato, S. (2003). The flawed logic of democratic peace theory. American Political Science Review, 97 (4), 585-602. Doi: 10.1017/S0003055403000893
Sağıroğlu, Ş. & Alkan, M. (2018). Siber güvenlik ve savunma: Farkındalık ve caydırıcılık. Ankara: Grafiker.
Schroefl, J. & Kaufman, S. J. (2014). Hybrid actors, tactical variety: Rethinking asymmetric and hybrid war. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 37 (10), 862-880. Doi: 10.1080/1057610X.2014.941435
Robinson, R. (2025 October 14). Cyberocracy and the efficiency paradox: Why democratic design is the smartest AI strategy for government. JD Supra. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cyberocracy-and-the-efficiency-paradox-5883244/.
Wigell, M. (2021). Democratic deterrence: How to dissuade hybrid interference. The Washington Quarterly, 44 (1), 49-67. Doi: 10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893027.
Wilkie, R. (2009). Hybrid warfare: Something old, not something new. Air & Space Power Journal, 23 (4), 13-18.
Yalçınkaya, H. & Türkeş, K. T. (2008). Yirmi birinci yüzyılda çatışma alanlarında görülen yeni unsurlar. Güvenlik Strateji Dergisi, 4 (7), 55-89.
Yeşilçayır, C. (2019). Kant’ın ebedi barış teorisinin özgünlüğü. Mavi Atlas, 7 (2), 108-120. https://doi.org/10.18795/gumusmaviatlas.599785
Yılmaz, S. (2020). 21. yüzyılda savaşın değişen karakteri: Orta Doğu bağlamında hibrit savaşlar. Ankara: Polis Akademisi.
Żuk, P. & Żuk, P. (2025). Healthy nation body, foreign viruses and border control: Health bordering and biopolitics in the Polish context. Mobilities, 1-26. Doi: 10.1080/17450101.2025.2581040
