İklim Değişikliği ve İklim Modelleme
Özet
İklim sistemleri, jeolojik devirler boyunca gerçekleşen güçlü volkanik aktiviteler, solar radyasyon ve Dünya’nın astronomik hareketlerinde meydana gelen varyasyonlar gibi doğal nedenler etkisiyle sürekli değişme eğiliminde olmuştur. Fakat son yüzyıllarda artan sanayileşme, fosil yakıt kullanımı, şehirleşme, ormansızlaşma ve arazi kullanımı gibi yoğun antropojenik faaliyetler sonucu atmosfere salınan sera gazları etkisi altında hızla değişmektedir. İklim değişikliği ile birlikte sıklığı ve şiddeti artan ekstrem hava olayları da doğal ve beşerî sistemler üzerinde güçlü bir baskı kurmaktadır. İklim bileşenlerindeki bu değişimler, bilimsel modeller yardımıyla geçmişten geleceğe doğru tahmin edilebilmektedir. Bu modeller; atmosfer, okyanuslar, karasal ekosistemler ve buzullar gibi farklı ortam bileşenleri arasındaki etkileşimleri, matematiksel denklemler halinde analiz ederek çeşitli projeksiyonlar oluşturur. Projeksiyonlar da sıcaklık, yağış ve deniz seviyesi gibi değişkenlerin, sera gazı emisyon senaryolarına dayanarak, gelecek durumu hakkındaki tahminleri kapsar. Bölgesel veya küresel model, senaryo ve projeksiyonlar; iklim değişikliğinin potansiyel etkilerini anlamak, uygun politika ve stratejiler geliştirmek için karar vericilere yardımcı olmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda iklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerine karşı sosyo-ekonomik açıdan uyum ve zarar azaltma stratejileri geliştirilmektedir. Genel olarak bu bölümde; iklim değişikliği ile ilgili kavramsal tanımlamalar yapılmış, iklim modelleri, senaryoları ve projeksiyonları değerlendirilmiş; iklim değişikliklerinin olası sektörel etkileri, uyum ve zarar azaltma strateji ve önerileri sunulmuştur.
Referanslar
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016). Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(42), 11770-11775. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113
Akçakaya, A., Sümer, U., Demircan, M., Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Gürkan, H., Yazıcı, B., Kocatürk, A., Şensoy, S., Bölük, E., Arabacı, H., Açar, Y., Ekici, M., Yağan, S., & Çukurçayır, F. (2015). Yeni Senaryolar ile Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği (TR2015-CC). Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü.
Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M. S., da Rocha, R. P., & Llopart, M. (2019). The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1436(1), 98-120. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13932
Durmuş, B. (2023). Antalya bölümünde meteorolojik ekstremler ile bitkisel fenoloji-verim arasındaki ilişkiler ve iklim değişikliği algısı [Doktora Tezi]. Akdeniz Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Fakültesi.
Durmuş, B., Bulut, İ., & Gönençgil, B. (2021). Antalya Bölümünde sıcaklık ve yağış indislerinin değişim analizleri. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 78, Article 78. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1009270
Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., & Mearns, L. O. (2000). Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science (New York, N.Y.), 289(5487), 2068-2074. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068
ECMWF. (2024). Climate projections | Copernicus. https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-projections
Fergus, G. (2014). English: Global average temperature graph estimates for the last 540 My [Graphic]. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png
Hawkins, E. (2024). Ed-hawkins/climate-visuals [HTML]. https://github.com/ed-hawkins/climate-visuals
Hayhoe, K., Edmonds, J., Kopp, R. E., LeGrande, A. N., Sanderson, B. M., Wehner, M. F., & Wuebbles, D. J. (2017). Ch. 4: Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/J0WH2N54
Hof, A., Bruin, K. D., Dellink, R., Elzen, M. D., & Vuuren, D. V. (2014). Costs, benefits and interlinkages between adaptation and mitigation. Içinde Global Climate Governance beyond 2012: Architecture, Agency and Adaptation (ss. 235-254). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139107150.019
Hourdin, F., Mauritsen, T., Gettelman, A., Golaz, J.-C., Balaji, V., Duan, Q., Folini, D., Ji, D., Klocke, D., Qian, Y., Rauser, F., Rio, C., Tomassini, L., Watanabe, M., & Williamson, D. (2017). The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1
IPCC. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (R. T. Watson & Core Writing Team, Ed.). Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. (2007). IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, & A. Reisinger, Ed.). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546013
IPCC. (2012). Glossary of Terms. İçinde C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, & Q. Dahe (Ed.), Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ss. 555-564). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.014
IPCC. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, & P. M. Midgley, Ed.). Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, & L. Meyer, Ed.).
IPCC. (2018). Global warming of 1.5°C. (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, & M. Tabatabaei, Ed.). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940
IPCC. (2019). Climate Change and Land: An Ipcc Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems (P. R. Shukla, J. Skeg, E. C. Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, S. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. P. Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, … J. Malley, Ed.).
IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, Ö. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou, Ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1. bs). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
Knutti, R., & Sedláček, J. (2013). Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 369-373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., & Tasa, D. G. (2009). The Atmosphere: An Introduction to Meteorology (11th edition). Pearson.
Neelin, J. D. (2010). Climate Change and Climate Modeling. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511780363
NOAA. (2024). Global Monitoring Laboratory—Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
PACCSAP. (2024). Understanding Climate Variability and Change. https://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/en/help/climate-projections/understanding-climate-variability-and-change/
Ruddiman, W. F. (2008). Earth’s Climate: Past and Future. W. H. Freeman.
T.C. Çevre, Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı. (2023). İklim Değişikliğine Uyum Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı 2024-2030.
Trenberth, K. E. (Ed.). (2010). Climate System Modeling (1st edition). Cambridge University Press.
Trenberth, K. E. (2018). Climate change caused by human activities is happening and it already has major consequences. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 36(4), 463-481. https://doi.org/10.1080/02646811.2018.1450895
Willows, R., Reynard, N., Meadowcroft, I., & Connell, R. K. (2003). Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Climate-adaptation%3A-Risk%2C-uncertainty-and-UKCIP-Willows-Reynard/119048da82fa901cfc6c73b95b8d3b3b3f96da26
Referanslar
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016). Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(42), 11770-11775. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113
Akçakaya, A., Sümer, U., Demircan, M., Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Gürkan, H., Yazıcı, B., Kocatürk, A., Şensoy, S., Bölük, E., Arabacı, H., Açar, Y., Ekici, M., Yağan, S., & Çukurçayır, F. (2015). Yeni Senaryolar ile Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği (TR2015-CC). Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü.
Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M. S., da Rocha, R. P., & Llopart, M. (2019). The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1436(1), 98-120. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13932
Durmuş, B. (2023). Antalya bölümünde meteorolojik ekstremler ile bitkisel fenoloji-verim arasındaki ilişkiler ve iklim değişikliği algısı [Doktora Tezi]. Akdeniz Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Fakültesi.
Durmuş, B., Bulut, İ., & Gönençgil, B. (2021). Antalya Bölümünde sıcaklık ve yağış indislerinin değişim analizleri. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 78, Article 78. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1009270
Easterling, D. R., Meehl, G. A., Parmesan, C., Changnon, S. A., Karl, T. R., & Mearns, L. O. (2000). Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science (New York, N.Y.), 289(5487), 2068-2074. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068
ECMWF. (2024). Climate projections | Copernicus. https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-projections
Fergus, G. (2014). English: Global average temperature graph estimates for the last 540 My [Graphic]. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png
Hawkins, E. (2024). Ed-hawkins/climate-visuals [HTML]. https://github.com/ed-hawkins/climate-visuals
Hayhoe, K., Edmonds, J., Kopp, R. E., LeGrande, A. N., Sanderson, B. M., Wehner, M. F., & Wuebbles, D. J. (2017). Ch. 4: Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/J0WH2N54
Hof, A., Bruin, K. D., Dellink, R., Elzen, M. D., & Vuuren, D. V. (2014). Costs, benefits and interlinkages between adaptation and mitigation. Içinde Global Climate Governance beyond 2012: Architecture, Agency and Adaptation (ss. 235-254). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139107150.019
Hourdin, F., Mauritsen, T., Gettelman, A., Golaz, J.-C., Balaji, V., Duan, Q., Folini, D., Ji, D., Klocke, D., Qian, Y., Rauser, F., Rio, C., Tomassini, L., Watanabe, M., & Williamson, D. (2017). The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1
IPCC. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (R. T. Watson & Core Writing Team, Ed.). Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. (2007). IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, & A. Reisinger, Ed.). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546013
IPCC. (2012). Glossary of Terms. İçinde C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, & Q. Dahe (Ed.), Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ss. 555-564). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.014
IPCC. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G. K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, & P. M. Midgley, Ed.). Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, & L. Meyer, Ed.).
IPCC. (2018). Global warming of 1.5°C. (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, & M. Tabatabaei, Ed.). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940
IPCC. (2019). Climate Change and Land: An Ipcc Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems (P. R. Shukla, J. Skeg, E. C. Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, S. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. P. Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, … J. Malley, Ed.).
IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, Ö. Yelekçi, R. Yu, & B. Zhou, Ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1. bs). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
Knutti, R., & Sedláček, J. (2013). Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change, 3(4), 369-373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., & Tasa, D. G. (2009). The Atmosphere: An Introduction to Meteorology (11th edition). Pearson.
Neelin, J. D. (2010). Climate Change and Climate Modeling. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511780363
NOAA. (2024). Global Monitoring Laboratory—Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
PACCSAP. (2024). Understanding Climate Variability and Change. https://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/en/help/climate-projections/understanding-climate-variability-and-change/
Ruddiman, W. F. (2008). Earth’s Climate: Past and Future. W. H. Freeman.
T.C. Çevre, Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı. (2023). İklim Değişikliğine Uyum Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı 2024-2030.
Trenberth, K. E. (Ed.). (2010). Climate System Modeling (1st edition). Cambridge University Press.
Trenberth, K. E. (2018). Climate change caused by human activities is happening and it already has major consequences. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 36(4), 463-481. https://doi.org/10.1080/02646811.2018.1450895
Willows, R., Reynard, N., Meadowcroft, I., & Connell, R. K. (2003). Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Climate-adaptation%3A-Risk%2C-uncertainty-and-UKCIP-Willows-Reynard/119048da82fa901cfc6c73b95b8d3b3b3f96da26
