Hayvan Hastalıklarının Modellenmesi
Özet
Hayvan sağlığı ekonomisi alanındaki ekonomik ve epidemiyolojik nitelik- teki modelleme yöntemleri, hayvan hastalıklarıyla ilgili kompleks durumları ve olayları sadeleştirmek ve anlaşılır bir hale getirilmesi amacıyla yaygın kullanım alanı bulmaktadır. Kitabın bu bölümünde hayvan sağlığı alanında matematiksel/ekonometrik modellemenin bulaşıcı hayvan hastalıklarının gelişmesini ve yayılmasını önlemede, tedavi seçeneklerinin değerlendiril- mesinde, aşılama programlarında, kontrol ve koruma programlarının geliş- tirilmesindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu bağlamda salgın hayvan hastalıklarının yönetiminde kullanılan çeşitli modelleme yöntemleri sınıflandırılmış ve bu modellerin oluşturulmasında gerekli olan detaylar açıklanmıştır. Özellikle hayvan sağlığı alanında sık kullanılan modellerle yapılan çalışmalar üzerin- den örnekler verilmiştir.
Referanslar
Alvarez J, Bezos J, de la Cruz ML, Casal C, et al., 2014. Bovine tuberculosis: within-herd trans- mission models to support and direct the decision-making process. Research in veterinary science, 97, 61-68.
Balenghien T, Chalvet-Monfray K, Bicout DJ, Sabatier P, 2005. Modelling and determination of the transmission contact rate for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia. Epidemiology & Infecti- on, 133(2), 337-342.
Bardhan D, Kumar S, Anandsekaran G, Chaudhury JK, et al., 2017. The economic impact of peste des petits ruminants in India. Rev. Sci. Tech, 36(1), 245-263.
Barratt AS, Rich KM, Eze JI, Porphyre T, Gunn GJ, Stott AW, 2019. Framework for estimating indirect costs in animal health using time series analysis. Frontiers in veterinary science, 6, 190, 1-18.
Bichara D, Iggidr A, Sallet G, 2014. Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing, 44(1), 273-292.
Boden LA, McKendrick IJ, 2017. Model-based policymaking: A framework to promote ethical “good practice” in mathematical modeling for public health policymaking. Frontiers in Public Health, (5), 68, 1-7.
Can MF, 2009. Hayvan Sağlığı Ekonomisi alanında kullanılan modelleme teknikleri ve çeşitli mo- delleme çalışmaları. Veteriner Hekimler Derneği Dergisi, 80(3), 7-12.
Chapman JD, Chappell MJ, Evans ND, 2011. The use of a formal sensitivity analysis on epidemic models with immune protection from maternally acquired antibodies. Computer methods and programs in biomedicine, 104(2), 37-49.
Cherry BR, Reeves MJ, Smith G, 1998. Evaluation of bovine viral diarrhea virus control using a mathematical model of infection dynamics. Preventive veterinary medicine, 33(1-4), 91-108. Choisy M, Guégan JF, Rohani P, 2007. Chapter 22: Mathematical modeling of infectious disea- ses Dynamics, In: Encyclopedia of Infectious Diseases: Modern Methodologie, Ed: Michel T,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc, pp: 379-404.
Çağırgan ÖY, Çagırgan AA, 2020. Epidemiological modelling in infectious diseases: stages and classification. Veterinary Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, 5(3), 151-158.
Çakır Ş, 2021. Sığır Tüberkülozunun enfeksiyon dinamiklerine dayalı epidemiyolojik model geliş- tirme. Doktora Tezi, Kırıkkale Üniversitesi, Sağlık Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Kırıkkale.
Çetin E, Kiremitci B, Yurt İD, 2009. Matematiksel epidemiyoloji: Pandemik A/H1N1 gribi vakası.
İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 38(2),197-209.
Dadlani A, Afolabi RO, Jung H, Sohraby K, et al., 2013. Deterministic models in epidemiology: from modeling to implementation. Technical report. Gwangju: Institute of Science and Te- chnology, Communications and Sensor Networks Laboratory. Erişim: https://arxiv.org/ pdf/2004.04675.pdf Erişim Tarihi:17.03.2022
Dubé C, Garner G, Stevenson M, Sanson R, Estrada C, Willeberg P, 2007. The use of epidemiologi- cal models for the management of animal diseases, Conf. OIE. 2007.p. 13- 23.
El Arbi, AS, Kane Y, Metras R, Hammami P, et al., 2019. PPR Control in a Sahelian Setting: What vaccination strategy for Mauritania?. Frontiers in veterinary science, (6), 242, 1-18.
Gandolfi A, 2013. Chapter 2: Percolation methods for SEIR epidemics on graphs. In: Dynamic models of infectious diseases, Ed: Rao VSH, Durvasula R, Springer, New York, pp. 31-58.
Garner MG, Dubé C, Stevenson MA, Sanson RL, et al., 2007. Evaluating alternative approaches to managing animal disease outbreaks–the role of modelling in policy formulation. Vet. ital, 43(2), 285-298.
Garner MG, Hamilton SA, 2011. Principles of epidemiological modelling. Revue Scientifique et Technique-OIE, 30(2), 407.
Gautam R, Bani-Yaghoub M, Neill WH, Döpfer D, Kaspar C, Ivanek R, 2011. Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157: H7 in a dairy herd. Preventive veterinary medicine, 102(1), 10-21.
Ge L, Mourits MC, Kristensen AR, Huirne RB, 2010. A modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in the control of FMD epidemics. Preventive veterinary medicine, 95(3-4), 167-174.
Gran JM. 2010. Infectious disease modelling and causal inference. MSc Thesis, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine University of Oslo, Norway.
Guo S. M, Wang J, Ghosh M, Li X Z, 2017. Analysis of avian influenza a (H7N9) model based on the low pathogenicity in poultry. Journal of Biological Systems, 25(2), 279-294.
Hethcote HW, 1989. Three basic epidemiological models. In: Applied mathematical ecology Ed: Levin SA, Hallam TG, Gross LJ, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. pp. 119-144.
Jenkins D. (2015). An examination of mathematical models for infectious disease, Honors re- search projects, 194. Erişim: https://ideaexchange.uakron.edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi?artic- le=1195&context=honors_research_projects. Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2022
Keeling MJ, Rohani P, 2011. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton uni- versity press.
Kobayashi M, Carpenter TE, Dickey BF, Howitt RE, 2007. A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 79(2-4), 257-273.
Mat B, Arıkan MS, Akın AC, Çevrimli MB, et al., 2021. Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model. BMC Veterinary Research, 17(1), 1-10.
Megersa B, Biffa D, Abunna F, Regassa A, et al., 2012. Epidemic characterization and modeling within herd transmission dynamics of an “emerging trans-boundary” camel disease epidemic in Ethiopia. Tropical animal health and production, 44(7), 1643-1651.
Molento MB, Bennema S, Bertot J, Pritsch IC, et al., 2018. Bovine fascioliasis in Brazil: Economic impact and forecasting. Veterinary Parasitology: Regional Studies and Reports, 12, 1-3.
Molla W, Frankena K, De Jong, MCM, 2017. Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia. Epidemiology & Infection, 145(13), 2856-2863.
Mostert PF, Bokkers EAM, Van Middelaar CE, Hogeveen H, et al., 2018. Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. Animal, 12(1), 145-154.
Nielsen JP, Larsen TS, Halasa T, Christiansen LE, 2017. Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house. Epidemiology & Infection, 145(13), 2787- 2796.
Nielsen LR, van den Borne B, Van Schaik G, 2007. Salmonella Dublin infection in young dairy calves: transmission parameters estimated from field data and an SIR-model. Preventive Ve- terinary Medicine, 79(1), 46-58.
Oli MK, Venkataraman M, Klein PA, Wendland LD, Brown MB (2006) Population dynamics of infectious diseases: A discrete time model. Ecological Modelling 198(1-2), 183–194.
Park AW, Wood JLN, Daly JM, Newton JR, Glass K, Henley W, Grenfell BT, 2004. The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Proce- edings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 271(1548), 1547-1555.
Phepa PB, Chirove F, Govinder KS, 2016. Modelling the role of multi-transmission routes in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in cattle and buffalo populations. Mathematical Bios- ciences, 277, 47-58.
Rorres C, Pelletier STK, Bruhn MC, Smith G, 2011. Ongoing estimation of the epidemic para- meters of a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model for a 1983–84 avian influenza epidemic. Avian diseases, 55(1), 35-42.
Saraç F, 2011. Damızlık Sığır Yetiştiriciliklerinde BoHV-1 Epidemiyolojisi İçin Matematik ve Si- mülasyon Modelleme Çalışmaları. Doktora Tezi. Ankara Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Ensti- tüsü, Ankara.
Savini L, Candeloro L, Conte A, De Massis F, et al., 2017. Development of a forecasting model for brucellosis spreading in the Italian cattle trade network aimed to prioritise the field interven- tions. PLoS One, 12(6), e0177313.
Simon A, Tardy O, Hurford A, Lecomte N, Bélanger D, Leighton P, 2019. Dynamics and persisten- ce of rabies in the Arctic. Polar Research, 38, 3366.
Şenocak MŞ, Bakır A, 2017. Epidemiyoloji’de Yöntembilim ve Sayısal Değerlendirme. Nobel Tı p Kitapevleri.
Tadesse B, Molla W, Mengsitu A, Jemberu WT, 2019. Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia. Epidemiology & Infection, 147, e189, 1-6.
Taylor N, 2003. Review of the use of models in informing disease control policy development and adjustment. DEFRA, UK, 26.
Thrusfıeld M, Chrıstley R, Brown H, Dıggle PJ, et al., (2018). Veterinay Epidemiology. Fourth Edition. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Chapter:23 pp:520-539
Türkay M, 2011. Optimizasyon modelleri ve çözüm metodları. URL: http://home. ku. edu. tr/~ mturkay/indr501/Optimizasyon. pdf.
Willeberg P, Grubbe T, Weber S, Forde-Folle K, et al., 2011. The World Organisation for animal health and epidemiological modelling: background and objectives. Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 30 (2), 391-405.
Yang B, 2016. Stochastic dynamics of an SEIS epidemic model. Advances in difference equations, 226: 1-11.
Yang Q, Jiang D, Shi N, Ji C, 2012. The ergodicity and extinction of stochastically perturbed SIR and SEIR epidemic models with saturated incidence. J. Math. Anal. Appl. (388), 248–271.
Referanslar
Alvarez J, Bezos J, de la Cruz ML, Casal C, et al., 2014. Bovine tuberculosis: within-herd trans- mission models to support and direct the decision-making process. Research in veterinary science, 97, 61-68.
Balenghien T, Chalvet-Monfray K, Bicout DJ, Sabatier P, 2005. Modelling and determination of the transmission contact rate for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia. Epidemiology & Infecti- on, 133(2), 337-342.
Bardhan D, Kumar S, Anandsekaran G, Chaudhury JK, et al., 2017. The economic impact of peste des petits ruminants in India. Rev. Sci. Tech, 36(1), 245-263.
Barratt AS, Rich KM, Eze JI, Porphyre T, Gunn GJ, Stott AW, 2019. Framework for estimating indirect costs in animal health using time series analysis. Frontiers in veterinary science, 6, 190, 1-18.
Bichara D, Iggidr A, Sallet G, 2014. Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing, 44(1), 273-292.
Boden LA, McKendrick IJ, 2017. Model-based policymaking: A framework to promote ethical “good practice” in mathematical modeling for public health policymaking. Frontiers in Public Health, (5), 68, 1-7.
Can MF, 2009. Hayvan Sağlığı Ekonomisi alanında kullanılan modelleme teknikleri ve çeşitli mo- delleme çalışmaları. Veteriner Hekimler Derneği Dergisi, 80(3), 7-12.
Chapman JD, Chappell MJ, Evans ND, 2011. The use of a formal sensitivity analysis on epidemic models with immune protection from maternally acquired antibodies. Computer methods and programs in biomedicine, 104(2), 37-49.
Cherry BR, Reeves MJ, Smith G, 1998. Evaluation of bovine viral diarrhea virus control using a mathematical model of infection dynamics. Preventive veterinary medicine, 33(1-4), 91-108. Choisy M, Guégan JF, Rohani P, 2007. Chapter 22: Mathematical modeling of infectious disea- ses Dynamics, In: Encyclopedia of Infectious Diseases: Modern Methodologie, Ed: Michel T,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc, pp: 379-404.
Çağırgan ÖY, Çagırgan AA, 2020. Epidemiological modelling in infectious diseases: stages and classification. Veterinary Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University, 5(3), 151-158.
Çakır Ş, 2021. Sığır Tüberkülozunun enfeksiyon dinamiklerine dayalı epidemiyolojik model geliş- tirme. Doktora Tezi, Kırıkkale Üniversitesi, Sağlık Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Kırıkkale.
Çetin E, Kiremitci B, Yurt İD, 2009. Matematiksel epidemiyoloji: Pandemik A/H1N1 gribi vakası.
İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 38(2),197-209.
Dadlani A, Afolabi RO, Jung H, Sohraby K, et al., 2013. Deterministic models in epidemiology: from modeling to implementation. Technical report. Gwangju: Institute of Science and Te- chnology, Communications and Sensor Networks Laboratory. Erişim: https://arxiv.org/ pdf/2004.04675.pdf Erişim Tarihi:17.03.2022
Dubé C, Garner G, Stevenson M, Sanson R, Estrada C, Willeberg P, 2007. The use of epidemiologi- cal models for the management of animal diseases, Conf. OIE. 2007.p. 13- 23.
El Arbi, AS, Kane Y, Metras R, Hammami P, et al., 2019. PPR Control in a Sahelian Setting: What vaccination strategy for Mauritania?. Frontiers in veterinary science, (6), 242, 1-18.
Gandolfi A, 2013. Chapter 2: Percolation methods for SEIR epidemics on graphs. In: Dynamic models of infectious diseases, Ed: Rao VSH, Durvasula R, Springer, New York, pp. 31-58.
Garner MG, Dubé C, Stevenson MA, Sanson RL, et al., 2007. Evaluating alternative approaches to managing animal disease outbreaks–the role of modelling in policy formulation. Vet. ital, 43(2), 285-298.
Garner MG, Hamilton SA, 2011. Principles of epidemiological modelling. Revue Scientifique et Technique-OIE, 30(2), 407.
Gautam R, Bani-Yaghoub M, Neill WH, Döpfer D, Kaspar C, Ivanek R, 2011. Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157: H7 in a dairy herd. Preventive veterinary medicine, 102(1), 10-21.
Ge L, Mourits MC, Kristensen AR, Huirne RB, 2010. A modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in the control of FMD epidemics. Preventive veterinary medicine, 95(3-4), 167-174.
Gran JM. 2010. Infectious disease modelling and causal inference. MSc Thesis, Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine University of Oslo, Norway.
Guo S. M, Wang J, Ghosh M, Li X Z, 2017. Analysis of avian influenza a (H7N9) model based on the low pathogenicity in poultry. Journal of Biological Systems, 25(2), 279-294.
Hethcote HW, 1989. Three basic epidemiological models. In: Applied mathematical ecology Ed: Levin SA, Hallam TG, Gross LJ, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. pp. 119-144.
Jenkins D. (2015). An examination of mathematical models for infectious disease, Honors re- search projects, 194. Erişim: https://ideaexchange.uakron.edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi?artic- le=1195&context=honors_research_projects. Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2022
Keeling MJ, Rohani P, 2011. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton uni- versity press.
Kobayashi M, Carpenter TE, Dickey BF, Howitt RE, 2007. A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 79(2-4), 257-273.
Mat B, Arıkan MS, Akın AC, Çevrimli MB, et al., 2021. Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model. BMC Veterinary Research, 17(1), 1-10.
Megersa B, Biffa D, Abunna F, Regassa A, et al., 2012. Epidemic characterization and modeling within herd transmission dynamics of an “emerging trans-boundary” camel disease epidemic in Ethiopia. Tropical animal health and production, 44(7), 1643-1651.
Molento MB, Bennema S, Bertot J, Pritsch IC, et al., 2018. Bovine fascioliasis in Brazil: Economic impact and forecasting. Veterinary Parasitology: Regional Studies and Reports, 12, 1-3.
Molla W, Frankena K, De Jong, MCM, 2017. Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia. Epidemiology & Infection, 145(13), 2856-2863.
Mostert PF, Bokkers EAM, Van Middelaar CE, Hogeveen H, et al., 2018. Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. Animal, 12(1), 145-154.
Nielsen JP, Larsen TS, Halasa T, Christiansen LE, 2017. Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house. Epidemiology & Infection, 145(13), 2787- 2796.
Nielsen LR, van den Borne B, Van Schaik G, 2007. Salmonella Dublin infection in young dairy calves: transmission parameters estimated from field data and an SIR-model. Preventive Ve- terinary Medicine, 79(1), 46-58.
Oli MK, Venkataraman M, Klein PA, Wendland LD, Brown MB (2006) Population dynamics of infectious diseases: A discrete time model. Ecological Modelling 198(1-2), 183–194.
Park AW, Wood JLN, Daly JM, Newton JR, Glass K, Henley W, Grenfell BT, 2004. The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Proce- edings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 271(1548), 1547-1555.
Phepa PB, Chirove F, Govinder KS, 2016. Modelling the role of multi-transmission routes in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in cattle and buffalo populations. Mathematical Bios- ciences, 277, 47-58.
Rorres C, Pelletier STK, Bruhn MC, Smith G, 2011. Ongoing estimation of the epidemic para- meters of a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model for a 1983–84 avian influenza epidemic. Avian diseases, 55(1), 35-42.
Saraç F, 2011. Damızlık Sığır Yetiştiriciliklerinde BoHV-1 Epidemiyolojisi İçin Matematik ve Si- mülasyon Modelleme Çalışmaları. Doktora Tezi. Ankara Üniversitesi Sağlık Bilimleri Ensti- tüsü, Ankara.
Savini L, Candeloro L, Conte A, De Massis F, et al., 2017. Development of a forecasting model for brucellosis spreading in the Italian cattle trade network aimed to prioritise the field interven- tions. PLoS One, 12(6), e0177313.
Simon A, Tardy O, Hurford A, Lecomte N, Bélanger D, Leighton P, 2019. Dynamics and persisten- ce of rabies in the Arctic. Polar Research, 38, 3366.
Şenocak MŞ, Bakır A, 2017. Epidemiyoloji’de Yöntembilim ve Sayısal Değerlendirme. Nobel Tı p Kitapevleri.
Tadesse B, Molla W, Mengsitu A, Jemberu WT, 2019. Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia. Epidemiology & Infection, 147, e189, 1-6.
Taylor N, 2003. Review of the use of models in informing disease control policy development and adjustment. DEFRA, UK, 26.
Thrusfıeld M, Chrıstley R, Brown H, Dıggle PJ, et al., (2018). Veterinay Epidemiology. Fourth Edition. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK Chapter:23 pp:520-539
Türkay M, 2011. Optimizasyon modelleri ve çözüm metodları. URL: http://home. ku. edu. tr/~ mturkay/indr501/Optimizasyon. pdf.
Willeberg P, Grubbe T, Weber S, Forde-Folle K, et al., 2011. The World Organisation for animal health and epidemiological modelling: background and objectives. Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 30 (2), 391-405.
Yang B, 2016. Stochastic dynamics of an SEIS epidemic model. Advances in difference equations, 226: 1-11.
Yang Q, Jiang D, Shi N, Ji C, 2012. The ergodicity and extinction of stochastically perturbed SIR and SEIR epidemic models with saturated incidence. J. Math. Anal. Appl. (388), 248–271.
