Yatırım ile Faiz Oranının Birbirine Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği
Özet
Bu çalışma, 2004/02–2021/11 dönemi Türkiye verisini kullanarak yatırım ile faiz oranı arasındaki karşılıklı etkileşimi ve tersine nedensellikten kaynaklanan içsellik sorununu incelemektedir. Literatürde faiz oranının yatırımı negatif, yatırımın ise artan fon talebi nedeniyle faiz oranını pozitif etkilediği kabul edilse de ampirik çalışmalar karışık sonuçlar sunmaktadır. Çalışma, bu karmaşıklığı aşmak için dönemi reel yatırımların ortalama getirisine göre düşük ve yüksek getirili dönemler olarak ikiye ayırmakta ve etkileşim terimli regresyon modelleriyle gerçek katsayıları yanlılıklardan ayırmaktadır. Bulgular, düşük getirili dönemlerde yatırımların fon arzını zorlamadığını ve faiz oranındaki 100 baz puanlık artışın yatırımı 0,0049 birim düşürerek negatif etkilediğini göstermektedir. Yüksek getirili dönemlerde ise artan fon talebi nedeniyle yatırımdan faiz oranına doğru pozitif bir etki ortaya çıkmakta ve yatırımdaki bir standart sapmalık artış faiz oranını yaklaşık 50 baz puan artırmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, tersine nedensellik kontrol edilmediğinde faiz oranının negatif etkisi gizlenmekte veya sapmaktadır. Çalışma, düşük getirili dönemlerde yatırımları uyarmak, yüksek getirili dönemlerde ise sürdürülebilirliği sağlamak adına faiz oranlarını düşürecek ya da artmasını önleyecek politikalar önermektedir.
This study examines the reciprocal interaction between investment and interest rates in Turkey using data from the 2004/02–2021/11 period, addressing the endogeneity problem caused by reverse causality. Although literature generally accepts that interest rates negatively affect investment while investment positively influences interest rates due to increased fund demand, empirical studies yield mixed findings. To overcome this complexity, the study divides the sample into low-return and high-return periods based on the average return on real investments, separating true coefficients from biases using regression models with interaction terms. The empirical findings show that during low-return periods, investments do not strain the fund supply, and a 100 basis point increase in the interest rate negatively affects investment by reducing it by 0.0049 units. Conversely, in high-return periods, elevated fund demand generates a positive effect running from investment to interest rates, where a one standard deviation increase in investment raises the interest rate by approximately 50 basis points. Consequently, failing to account for reverse causality conceals or distorts the true negative impact of interest rates. The study concludes by recommending policies that lower interest rates or prevent their increase in order to stimulate investment during low-return periods and sustain it during high-return periods.
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