Azerbaycan’da Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicileri
Özet
Bu çalışma, 1992-2010 döneminde Azerbaycan’ın reel ekonomik büyümesini etkileyen temel makroekonomik faktörleri analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma kapsamında enflasyon, işsizlik oranı, uluslararası ticaret, para arzı, döviz kurları, ulusal rezervler, devlet harcamaları ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar gibi değişkenler incelenmiştir. Pozitivist teori ve tümdengelimli akıl yürütme yaklaşımı doğrultusunda elde edilen veriler, Pearson korelasyon katsayısı ve regresyon analizi yöntemleri yardımıyla istatistiksel olarak test edilmiştir. Yapılan korelasyon analizi sonuçları, Manat'ın ABD Doları karşısındaki döviz kurundaki değişimler ile devlet harcamalarının reel GSYİH büyümesi ile negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Regresyon analizi bulguları ise reel GSYİH büyümesinin temel belirleyicilerinin para arzındaki değişimler, mal ve hizmet ihracatı, petrol ihracatı ve devlet harcamaları olduğunu göstermiştir. Sebep-sonuç ilişkisi açısından bakıldığında; para arzı artışı ve mal ile hizmet ihracatı reel GSYİH büyümesi üzerinde olumlu bir etki yaratırken, petrol ürünleri ihracatı ve devlet harcamaları ise ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Elde edilen bu bulgular, Azerbaycan’da sürdürülebilir reel ekonomik büyümenin sağlanmasının petrol dışı endüstrilerle ekonominin çeşitlendirilmesine ve piyasa ekonomisine geçişte devletin müdahalesi ile harcamalarının azaltılmasına bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir.
This study aims to analyze the key macroeconomic factors affecting Azerbaijan's real economic growth during the 1992–2010 period. Within the scope of the research, variables such as inflation, unemployment rate, international trade, money supply, exchange rates, foreign reserves, government expenditures, and foreign direct investments were examined. In line with positivist theory and a deductive reasoning approach, the collected data were statistically tested using Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis methods. The results of the correlation analysis revealed that changes in the exchange rate of the Manat against the US Dollar and government expenditures have a negative and statistically significant relationship with real GDP growth. Meanwhile, regression analysis findings demonstrated that the main determinants of real GDP growth are changes in money supply, exports of goods and services, oil exports, and government expenditures. In terms of cause-and-effect relationships, while money supply growth and exports of goods and services exert a positive effect on real GDP growth, oil product exports and government expenditures negatively affect economic growth. These findings indicate that achieving sustainable real economic growth in Azerbaijan depends on diversifying the economy with non-oil industries and reducing government interventions and expenditures during the transition to a market economy.
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